Back in 2022 at the time of the rescheduled 2022 ICM I wrote here:
One decision already made there was that the 2026 ICM will be hosted by the US in Philadelphia. With the 2022 experience in mind, hopefully the IMU will for next time have prepared a plan for what to do in case they again end up having a host country with a collapsed democracy being run by a dangerous autocrat.
While I’m trying to protect my sanity by avoiding the news as much as possible, what’s happening now seems to me to raise important questions that the IMU and the ICM Organizing Committee need to seriously start thinking about:
- The ICM opening ceremony has often been chaired by the host country head of state. Will the Philadelphia opening ceremony be chaired by Trump or his representative?
- Given the attitude of the current administration towards foreigners, what assurances have the ICM organizers gotten that mathematicians from all countries will have no trouble getting visas and traveling to the US?
- In 2022 the St. Petersburg ICM was canceled due to the Russian military entering Ukraine and attempting to take over the country by force. The US has threatened to do the same thing to Greenland and to Panama. Will the Philadelphia ICM be canceled if this happens?
- The news from yesterday appears to be that the US has changed sides in the Ukraine conflict, now refusing to condemn the Russian invasion, and demanding economic reparations from the Ukrainians to compensate for past US military support. If the Russians are able to take over Ukraine and install a puppet government with US help, would that be a reason to cancel the ICM?
Given how fast things are evolving, it’s impossible to predict what the situation will be in July 2026. The ICM 2022 debacle was caused by the decision to hold the ICM in a country governed by a dangerous dictator, then hope for the best and not make contingency plans. The same mistake should not be made twice.
If, as now appears all too likely, the US government decides to join forces with the expansionist Russian dictatorship, everyone who can do anything about this has a moral issue to face. The ICM organizers need to start deciding on and making clear what their red-lines are, with a contingency plan if they get crossed.
One problem is that with fascism on the march world-wide, it’s unclear what alternate location would be safe. At least in this case, I’ll point out that for now France is looking pretty good, even if only through the spring of 2027.
Being a French, I thank you for your last comment. ICM participants will surely love any French city.
Denmark looks good these days. They’ve put their extreme right into the toilet with a broad coalition (although to do it, unfortunately, they’ve hardened their attitudes towards immigration). https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/24/magazine/denmark-immigration-policy-progressives.html
What about the Republic of Ireland as a venue?
At this point, the criterion for an acceptable ICM alternative venue might just be one not run by an autocrat and with a policy of supporting territorial integrity of other nations.
In case of a US invasion of Greenland, Peter Orland’s suggestion is a good one.
Dear Peter,
personally, I already decided to cancel an already planned trip to USA next July for the quantum gravity 2025 conference (https://sites.psu.edu/2024quantumgravity/) and I will avoid any other opportunity to travel to USA (anyway, many events allow on-line participation that is making things much easier).
As regards locations for events like ICM, I would rather suggest to chose developing countries in Asia or Africa or South America, also as a sign of solidarity (if ever it existed) with scientists working in more challenging environments (last year in July, for example, there was a really wonderful mathematical physics conference in Cotonou (https://icgtmp.sciencesconf.org/?lang=en)).
Paolo
I could attend the ICBS conference in China because it says «This conference is a purely academic event. It does not promote any political opinion». I cannot attend conferences at Perimeter, not even on zoom, because it forces to accept a Code of Conduct that contains political elements including DEI (“inclusivity, equity, diversity”) and I am not Marxist. Removing all these woke Codes of Conduct that did not exist a decade ago seems to me a better contribution to freedom than avoiding conferences in the US.
I think the following should give the IMU pause:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/25/visa-ban-transgender-athletes
“The US state department has ordered officials worldwide to deny visas to transgender athletes attempting to come to the US for sports competitions and to issue permanent visa bans against those who are deemed to misrepresent their birth sex on visa applications. The 24 February state department cable obtained by the Guardian instructs visa officers to apply Immigration and Nationality Act section 212(a)(6)(C)(i) – the ‘permanent fraud bar’ – against trans applicants. Unlike regular visa denials, this section triggers lifetime exclusion from the United States with limited waiver possibilities.”
This would potentially make it impossible for transgender mathematicians to attend the ICM.
Paolo Bertozinni,
I’m curious if US-based conferences are already seeing an effect of significant numbers of people like you not wanting to travel to the US (and a small number of Trump fans like Alessandro Strumia now enthusiastic to visit a US free of the crushing yoke of Marxism).
I have mixed feelings about boycotts, but have always felt that countries run by an ugly autocracy with the enthusiastic support of its inhabitants are best avoided if one can. If I could avoid the US in its current state, I would: being surrounded all the time by lies, moral degradation, stupidity and craziness is depressing. I’m very much looking forward to getting out of here for a short spring break trip to Paris.
Dear Peter,
they will for sure see some significant effects: a small, maybe irrelevant, number of people (as in my case) are sufficiently lucky to be able to decide where to go, some others (as it was pointed out for example by “epsilondelta” above) do not have much choice, either because they are already banned from entrance or because it will be much more difficult and, frankly speaking, risky for Them (especially if coming from certain countries in the “South”!) to apply for a visa and enter USA at this point.
I am also very suspicious of official boycotts … I simply “individually” decide where it is worth spending my time and energies, avoiding environments where I feel uncomfortable (as I did when I decided to move to work out of the West, almost 30 years ago, when I was much more ideologically motivated).
@ Alessandro+Strumia
Personally, I am not enthusiastic about imposed, and very often fake, agendas superficially promoting rights, although I always recognise the need to protect abused minorities against bullying (that is unfortunately quite widespread in science and technology).
I do not really think that at this moment what we see is simply a confrontation between Marxism and liberalism or between autocracy and democracy or a remake of fascism against communism, as You can immediately see from the mutual incompatibilities between the three pairs of artificial categories listed above. It is something much more dangerous and subtle that is directly related to the way we deal with “supremacy” and interpret “freedom” (and this is going to create sharp divisions especially within the scientific/technological community).
Best Regards.
I’m involved in the annual Applied Category Theory conference. Traditionally this conference has bounced back and forth between the US and Europe. This year it’s being held in the US, and thanks to Trump we’re seeing more people from outside the US reluctant to attend. It’s too early to determine the actual magnitude of this effect.
I’ve taken a job in Scotland to make it easier to stay outside the US as things continue to deteriorate.
To me, the suggestion of France as a stable contingency plan for the US is kind of amusing. Whether Macron really makes it all the way to the 2027 election is doubtful, considering the French government constantly faces no-cinfidence votes and the more that happens, the higher the pressure on Macron rises.
But I agree that the bar for finding a suitable nation is both seemingly low yet hard to clear these days.