News From All Over

There are two new particle theory blogs that I’ve noticed recently: Shores of the Dirac Sea, where David Berenstein and Moshe Rozali are blogging and the Physics Anti-Crackpot Blog, by an anonymous author at CERN. I don’t know who this last blogger is, but he joins his (or her) colleague Jester at Resonaances (who is anonymous, but not hard to figure out) in skepticism about supersymmetry. Maybe things at CERN-TH are such that anonymity is a good idea if you hold such opinions….

Also at CERN, news of progress on the LHC commissioning is here. It seems that after some initial quick successes, there’s no beam at the moment as they fix various problems with the machine.

Frank Wilczek doesn’t have a blog (although his wife Betsy Devine does), but he does now have a web-site, as well as another web-site for his new book The Lightness of Being. Here’s a summary of the book, and a sample chapter, which gives you an idea what he’s trying to do with the book.

The IAS has started to put some lectures on-line, including the latest summer school on string theory and the memorial for Selberg.

The Harvard physics department now is running a video archive. It includes video of their recent Colloquia, Loeb lectures, and Sydney Coleman’s quantum field theory course.

For the latest on INSPIRE, SCOAP3, and potential changes in how the on-line physics literature works, see this interview with DESY’s Annette Holkamp (via Travis Brooks at Symmetry Breaking).

Update: There seems to have been some sort of problem in Sector 34 triggered by powering tests for operation at 5 TeV. This caused a large helium leak in the tunnel, an investigation is under way. More here.

Update: The news from the LHC is pretty bad. A failure during a powering test will require warming up the entire sector to fix the problem, then cooling it back down. This means that it will be another two months before beam commissioning efforts can start again, likely pushing physics collisions off until next spring, after the winter shutdown. There’s a press release here.

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Don’t Buy Into the Supercollider Hype

Some wag at the Wall Street Journal put the headline Don’t Buy Into the Supercollider Hype on today’s Op-Ed piece by Michio Kaku about the LHC, which describes its significance as follows:

The LHC might shed light on the “theory of everything,” a single theory which can explain all fundamental forces of the universe, a theory which eluded Albert Einstein for the last 30 years of his life. This is the Holy Grail of physics. Einstein hoped it would allow us to “read the Mind of God.”

Today, the leading (and only) candidate for this fabled theory of everything is called “string theory,” which is what I do for for a living. Our visible universe, according to this theory, represents only the lowest vibration of tiny vibrating strings. The LHC might find something called “sparticles,” or super particles, which represent higher vibrations of the string. If so, the LHC might even verify the existence of higher dimensions of space-time, which would truly be an earth-shaking discovery.

If I were an experimentalist or accelerator scientist working on the LHC, I might have a problem with the fact that the biggest media outlets are having theorists, often string theorists, be the ones to tell the public about the LHC (yesterday was Brian Greene’s turn, in the New York Times). Many such stories imply that the LHC will somehow tell us something about string theory, while even one of the blogosphere’s most enthusiastic string theory supporters puts the probability of this at about half of one-percent.

For some hype-free LHC predictions based on serious science that I fully endorse, see Resonaances, where the probability of seeing anything relevant to string theory isn’t even listed, and supersymmetry is given a one-tenth of one percent chance, on the grounds:

1% is a typical fine-tuning of susy models, and the additional factor of .1 is because it makes me puke.

which seems about right. The probability of the LHC producing black holes is given as something exponentially small, somewhat less than the probability of producing dragons.

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Science in the 21st Century

This week the Perimeter Institute is hosting an unusual conference on Science in the 21st Century. One of the organizers is Sabine Hossenfelder, who has a posting discussing the conference here, and may have some more about it at her blog later.

Many of the talks are now available on-line here. I’ve only had time to watch a couple of them, but one that I found worth paying attention to was Lee Smolin’s. He covered some of the same issues discussed in his book, including the question of what science is, the ethics of how it is pursued, and the difficulties of encouraging new ideas. The discussion with the audience was also quite fascinating, including an exchange about differences between the American and British academic systems, with a British participant describing his shock at seeing how much the “American academic system is a training in sycophancy”.

The topic of blogs came up mainly in a section where Smolin discussed the ethical importance of scientists putting their name and reputation behind what they have to say about their science. He characterized anonymous criticism as one of the main reasons for the low signal/noise ratio and nasty environment of the comment sections of many blogs, describing this as far worse than anything he had encountered in his professional career, and something that is giving science a bad name. The theoretical physics group at Harvard in the 1970s was given as an example of about the worst it could get in academia. At the end of the discussion session, Paul Ginsparg took him to task about this, saying that he had been there too and it wasn’t that bad. I was there at the same time as both of them, and remember it as a rather unfriendly environment with a quite high arrogance level. But, with faculty like Coleman, Weinberg, Glashow, and postdocs like Witten, the talent and accomplishments of the people involved seemed to justify quite a bit of arrogance.

Ginsparg went on to agree with Smolin about anonymity on blogs, comparing trying to have a serious discussion in such an environment to trying to do so in a Fellini movie, being attacked by dwarves wearing masks.

Update: One talk I highly recommend is that of Eric Weinstein, with the title Sheldon Glashow Owes me a Dollar (and 17 years of interest): What happens in the marketplace of ideas when the endless frontier meets the efficient frontier? Eric’s talk includes a wide variety of thought-provoking and entertaining attempts to bring ideas from economics and finance into thinking about how science gets done and whether it can be done more efficiently.

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LHC Startup Tonight

There’s a media storm about the LHC building up as CERN makes last minute preparations to circulate a first beam in the machine. Cosmic Variance has live-blogging about this by a group of theorists, and Tommaso Dorigo will be in the CMS control room. He just might blog about this. For up-to-the-minute news, try the LHC beam commissioning site. Here’s the plan for tomorrow, and the latest news: they’re ready to get started at 6am tomorrow Geneva time. I’ll be asleep.

Starting tomorrow, daily news reports about progress should appear here. They’ve got a very detailed plan for steps to go through, here’s where they are now, here’s where they hope to be Thursday and Friday.

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More LHC Predictions

Roger Highfield has gone out and asked several theorists for LHC predictions, with the following results.

About supersymmetry:

  • Arkani-Hamed

    My hunch is that there’s a better than evens chance that supersymmetry will show up at the LHC…

  • Veltman

    I would be surprised if supersymmetry were found. I supported the idea when it was first suggested, but I’ve gradually lost confidence in it, though I might well be wrong. To be sure, if the LHC finds nothing to support supersymmetry, its advocates will just make excuses and keep using it. As for string theory, it’s all mumbo jumbo, with no connection with experiment.

  • Silverstein

    Some of my intuition comes from string theory, an appealing candidate for a theory of all the forces of nature. According to many – perhaps most – versions of string theory, supersymmetry does not hold good at the energies probed by the LHC, so its discovery might require further explanation from this point of view.

    (it appears that the excuses Veltman is predicting are already in place…)

  • Llewellyn-Smith

    …(with 60% probability) supersymmetry…

  • Lisi

    Many physicists also think it likely that evidence will be found for supersymmetry, strings, or new dimensions — but I disagree.

  • About the Higgs:

  • Arkani-Hamed

    I’ve already bet a year’s salary they will find the Higgs particle.

  • (anyone know who took the other side of that bet?)

  • Veltman

    It would not surprise me if the experimenters don’t find the Higgs particle. I don’t trust the theory behind it. But if it does appear to show up, it will be crucial to check that it behaves as the theory predicts.

  • Silverstein

    I’d be extremely puzzled if they don’t find the Higgs…

  • Llewellyn-Smith

    My hunch is that a Higgs boson will be found (95% probability)…

  • Lisi

    The most likely result from the LHC is detection of a single Higgs particle.

  • John March-Russell goes all-out:

    …our quest for a source of almost unlimited climate-friendly energy might be answered by the creation of exotic unstable, but long-lived, charged particles… It might also turn out that the number of space and time dimensions is ambiguous…

    Posted in Uncategorized | 24 Comments

    LHC Roundup

    The first attempt to circulate a beam in the LHC is still set for next Wednesday, and the media is already full of LHC stories, with a lot more to come next week. Events are being organized all over the world to celebrate the day, including a 1:30 am pajama party at Fermilab (see here). Today’s Wall Street Journal carries a page one story about preparations at CERN that focus on improvisational comedy training for physicists to help them communicate.

    For more serious news from the LHC, you can try following progress at CERN’s startup site for the public, or at the technical LHC commissioning site. Latest available minutes from the Installation and Commissioning Committee are here, including a timeline and objectives for the next few days and for September 10. The “also going on” column for September 10 lists just “chaos”.

    Science magazine has some excellent LHC-related stories in this week’s issue. In this one, various people explain what the LHC is looking for and why it will take a while to get results. Gordy Kane is having none of that though, predicting discovery of supersymmetry next month:

    “We predict a signature that they could see with five events,” says Michigan’s Kane. “They could see it in the first week of running in October.”

    Another article, Researchers, Place Your Bets!, features bloggers Tommaso Dorigo and Jacques Distler. Tommaso has bet that the LHC will see no deviations from the standard model, although from what I remember, he did this just because if this happens it will be so depressing that at least some cash will cheer him up. Gordy Kane and Stuart Raby claim supersymmetry is such a sure thing that they can’t find anyone who will bet against it. Distler’s comment on this is:

    I wonder how hard they tried.

    The same article gives links to sites where you can bet on the Higgs boson discovery date.

    Nature magazine is running an LHC-related editorial Cool Philosophies in this week’s issue. It is inspired by an interesting recent preprint by philosopher of science Alexei Grinbaum: On the eve of the LHC: conceptual questions in high-energy physics. Grinbaum gives an extensive discussion of the current state of particle theory and its societal context. He ends with a philosophical section on fine-tuning and currently popular anthropic arguments, arguing that these often invoke an invalid use of counterfactuals.

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    What’s Up With PAMELA?

    There were some comments about this in a previous posting, but I thought it worth remarking on the unusual situation that papers have started to appear reproducing plots of new data from the PAMELA satellite, even though no such data has been officially released.

    This all seems to have started with a July 31 talk at ICHEP 2008, with slides here, but evidently some other slides of preliminary data were flashed on the screen. There was a news story in Nature about this, but still no official release of data. Then, on August 20th there was this talk at idm2008, with no slides made available on-line, but interesting slides again flashed. Evidently some enterprising theorist decided to do some of his or her own data acquisition.

    Soon, a preprint on Minimal Dark Matter predictions and the PAMELA positron excess was on the arXiv, complete with PAMELA data, with the notation:

    the preliminary data points for positron and antiproton fluxes plotted in our figures have been extracted from a photo of the slides taken during the talk, and can thereby slightly differ from the data that the PAMELA collaboration will officially publish.

    There are now at least two other papers on the arXiv featuring PAMELA data, evidently from the same source, here and here. Andrew Jaffe has a new blog posting up entitled Stealing Data? where he expresses discomfort with this situation. I can’t quite see that one is “stealing” data if it is being presented at major conferences.

    Are there any of my readers out there who can tell us what’s up with PAMELA?

    Update: Nature has a new article about PAMELA being “outed by paparazzi physicists”. One of the paparazzi, Marco Cirelli, is quoted as saying that “we had our digital cameras ready”, and claiming that the PAMELA people at the conference didn’t have a problem with this. On the other hand, a PAMELA PI is quoted as being “very, very upset” about this.

    And I should have linked earlier to this posting at Resonaances: Hot Photos of PAMELA.

    Update: According to Science News, the problem is not a Nature embargo. They just haven’t finished a paper yet:

    “We plan to have final results ready by early October and submit a paper to a peer-reviewed journal,” Boezio told Science News. Until then, he says, the findings remain preliminary, and “We prefer to withhold further comments.”

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    The Multiverse at Perimeter

    This week, the Perimeter Institute is hosting a conference entitled A Debate in Cosmology – The Multiverse. Here’s the schedule, and talks have started to appear on-line here.

    Some of the speakers will be discussing the Many Worlds interpretation of QM. It has always mystified me why this sometimes gets put together with the string theory landscape sort of multiverse. It will be interesting to see how many of the speakers address the fundamental problem of the subject, that of coming up with a plausible falsifiable prediction. Lee Smolin has generally put that problem front and center, but he tends to be alone in doing this. The more usual thing in this subject is to go on about what an important idea the multiverse is, then make some sort of excuse for not being able to predict anything with it.

    Also dealing with the problem of multiverse predictivity is this new preprint on the arXiv about the landscape, and this laudatory commentary from Lubos. According to him, it’s not much of a problem that one is talking about measuring low energy observables to 500 digit accuracy, when one can’t now even predict their rough order of magnitude.

    My colleague Brian Greene will be at Perimeter this week, giving a public talk about his new book Icarus at the Edge of Time. It is being released to bookstores today and I haven’t yet seen a copy, but it appears to be a science fiction book mainly aimed at children, illustrated with pictures from the Hubble Space Telescope. There’s a blog entry about the design of the book here, with some pages of the book here.

    Update: Sabine Hossenfelder has reports from the conference and public lecture.

    Posted in Multiverse Mania | 24 Comments

    Yau Birthday Conference

    There’s a conference at Harvard this week celebrating (somewhat early) the 60th birthday of the geometer Shing-Tung Yau. Since I was passing through Cambridge on the way back from a short vacation, I managed to catch a few of the talks, including two quite nice ones on mathematical physics from Is Singer and Edward Witten.

    Singer’s talk was entitled “The Interface between Geometry and Physics, 1967-2007”, and summarized some of the advances in this area that he has been involved with over the years. 1967 was the year of a Battelle conference in Seattle on the intersection of mathematics and physics, organized by DeWitt [2/12/21: Chris DeWitt tells me this was Cecile DeWitt-Morette] and Wheeler. Singer displayed a copy of a 1966 letter from Feynman to Wheeler turning down an invitation to attend, with the explanation

    I am not interested in what today’s mathematicians find interesting.

    At the 1967 conference Robert Geroch talked on the topic of singularities in GR, and Singer recalled inviting Geroch to talk at the 1973 geometry conference at Stanford on this topic and the positive mass conjecture. By 1975 Singer had learned from Jim Simons at Stony Brook that non-abelian gauge fields were exactly the connections on principal G-bundles studied by mathematicians. The news of the BPST instanton solution and its significance for physics caused him to seriously start working in this area, work conducted with Hitchin and Atiyah at Oxford. They made use of the index theorem to both calculate the dimension of the moduli space of instantons, and to show that the Dirac operator had zero-modes in instanton backgrounds. Later, Atiyah and Singer interpreted the local gauge anomaly using the farmilies index theorem.

    Just as Atiyah did at his recent talk at the Bott conference, Singer interspersed his historical talk with remarks identifying unsolved problems that he thinks are worth attention. The first of these has to do with K-theory, extended to depend not just on vector bundles, but on vector bundles with connection. Here the open problem has to do with the analog of the families index theorem. There’s a topological index (that takes values in the extended K-theory of the family), and the open problem is to define an appropriate analytical index and show topological=analytical equality. Singer had been hoping to have some new results to report on this, but he says that things turned out to be trickier than he had expected, so maybe he’ll have an answer at Yau’s 65th birthday.

    The next topic was that of quantum Yang-Mills theory and the Millennium problem of proving the existence of a mass gap. Singer talked mainly about 2+1 YM, his conversations with Feynman about this, and his hopes that the positivity of the sectional curvature of the natural Riemannian connection on the space of gauge potentials modulo gauge transformations could be exploited to prove that there must be a mass gap. Proving this in 2+1d was his second open problem.

    His final topic was mirror symmetry and S-duality. Here he speculated that this (and M-theory in general) might have something to do with a phenomenon from operator algebra theory. Unlike for N by N matrices, where all maximal abelian subalgebras of self-adjoint operators are conjugate, for certain C* algebras (rings of operators of type II), there are inequivalent such maximal abelian subalgebras. I gather that his idea is that these might correspond to the existence of lots of inequivalent limits of M-theory.

    The next morning Witten gave a talk on quantum Yang-Mills and the Millennium problem, saying that this was in response to a request from Yau to explain at a basic level to a wide mathematical audience what this is about. He gave an extremely lucid explanation of the mass gap problem, taking the Hamiltonian point of view. This supplements what he and Jaffe did in the official write-up of the problem, which deals more with the Euclidean picture. As motivation, he explained in detail what happens in the Abelian case, where one can compute everything and there is no mass gap. The audience was appreciative and I think got something out of this, unlike quite a few talks of physicists to mathematicians, which tend to start at much too high a level of complexity, ensuring that only experts can follow.

    Witten avoided one aspect of this problem, the one that most fascinates me, that of how you handle the gauge symmetry. In the Abelian case there are several equivalent ways of doing this, but in the non-Abelian case, at least in the continuum, one needs to understand BRST symmetry non-perturbatively, and this remains a difficult problem, one with deep connections to open problems in mathematics.

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    Boltzmann Brain Domination

    A burning question in theoretical physics these days is that of whether Boltzmann Brains dominate the string theory anthropic landscape. It seems that to answer this question one must study the details of how BBs nucleate and how string vacua decay. String vacua can do pretty much anything, so attention is focused on the detailed study of how to make the Brains and ad hoc choices of “measure” on the multiverse, with these issues occupying the attention of many leading figures in cosmology. While the question of BB domination of the multiverse remains open, it is becoming increasingly clear that BBs may soon dominate hep-th. Their nucleation rate is increasing, while the decay rate of the rest of the field also appears to be increasing. Doing phenomenology and extrapolating data a few years into the future, Boltzmann Brain domination of hep-th appears inevitable.

    The latest hep-th arXiv postings include two new contributions to BB studies. One is from a group of three physicists at Berkeley, the second is from a large collaboration of six cosmologists on both coasts, including three of the major figures in the subject. For a third, more intellectually substantive, contribution of similar length, there’s a new posting on the subject from Lubos.

    Posted in Multiverse Mania | 17 Comments