This report updates earlier ones and the EPP2010 report in light of new realities, specifically acknowledgement that the cost of the ILC means it’s not happening anytime soon, and the grim budget situation caused by the recent budget cuts for this year. To be honest, it’s very unclear to me how anyone can sensibly carry through this kind of exercise right now. With the supplemental appropriation still up in the air at the House and the Senate, it’s hard to know what the US HEP budget will be next month, much less next year, or over 10 years. The LHC startup is only months away, and how long that takes and what the LHC shows are crucial things for any future planning.
In the report, the field is broken into three parts:
One crucial decision that will need to be made soon is how long to run the Tevatron. The report says to continue support “for the next one to two years”, with two only in the optimistic scenario C. On the question of the ILC, the report describes “a wide range of opinion” in the HEP community and on the panel. Opinions about both of these may very well change over the next year depending on what happens at the LHC.
In both scenarios A and B, the report envisages cutting staff at the national labs, in favor of preserving support for research based at universities.
Update: The final P5 report is here.