{"id":7715,"date":"2015-05-13T09:44:56","date_gmt":"2015-05-13T13:44:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/?p=7715"},"modified":"2015-05-13T09:44:56","modified_gmt":"2015-05-13T13:44:56","slug":"about-that-smoking-gun","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/?p=7715","title":{"rendered":"About That Smoking Gun…"},"content":{"rendered":"

Aeon magazine has just published a long piece on the current state of cosmology<\/a> by Ross Andersen. One focus is on Paul Steinhardt and his claims that the popular multiverse\/eternal inflation scenario doesn’t explain what it is supposed to, and is compatible with almost any experimental result. The BICEP2 fiasco, where multiverse proponents first claimed a “smoking gun” vindication from B-modes, then went on to claim that no B-modes was just as good for their theory once they disappeared, is the main topic of the article (for a previous posting about this, see here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why Steinhardt was surprised to see inflationary theorists clinking glasses when BICEP2 announced a high swirls figure. \u2018They declared victory,\u2019 he told me. \u2018They said it was smoking-gun proof! Just what they expected!\u2019<\/p>\n

But then a few months passed and BICEP2\u2019s interpretation started to look wobbly. In June, Linde told New Scientist that he didn\u2019t like the way BICEP2\u2019s swirls were being treated as a smoking gun for inflation. In July, Guth made similar statements to the Washington Post. Steinhardt was furious. He thought it was flip-flopping. He began to wonder if any data would disturb the serene certainty of inflationary theorists. \u2018It was Andre Linde who used the \u201csmoking gun\u201d language in the first place,\u2019 he told me. \u2018Now he says it doesn\u2019t make a difference what BICEP2 says. How can it be that not seeing gravitational waves is fine, and then seeing them is a smoking gun, and then not seeing them is fine again?\u2019\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Steinhardt explains that the underlying problem is that the underlying problem is an inherently untestable paradigm, compatible with anything:<\/p>\n

The theory\u2019s weaknesses can be explained away with the same glib shrug that accompanies the retort: \u2018God just made it that way.\u2019<\/p>\n

A dominant, infinitely flexible multiverse theory could make it easy not to strain for the next leap forward. It could lead to a chilling effect on new ideas in cosmology, or worse, a creative crisis. Steinhardt thinks we\u2019re already there. \u2018Andre Linde has become associated with eternal inflation because he thinks the multiverse is a good idea,\u2019 he told me. \u2018But I invented it, too, and I think it\u2019s a horrible idea. It\u2019s an emperor\u2019s new clothes story. Except in that story, it\u2019s a child who points out that the Emperor has no clothes. In this case, it\u2019s the tailors themselves telling us that the theory is not testable. It\u2019s Guth and Linde.\u2019<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

His hope for how the subject will get saved from itself is with help from philosophers:<\/p>\n

\u2018The outside community isn\u2019t recognising the problem,\u2019 he said. \u2018This whole BICEP2 thing has made some people more aware of it. It\u2019s been nice to have that aired out. But most people give us too much respect. They think we know what we\u2019re doing. They take too seriously these voices that say inflation is established theory.\u2019<\/p>\n

I asked him who might help. What cavalry was he calling for?<\/p>\n

\u2018I wish the philosophers would get involved,\u2019 he said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

That might help, but I think other ideas are needed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Aeon magazine has just published a long piece on the current state of cosmology by Ross Andersen. One focus is on Paul Steinhardt and his claims that the popular multiverse\/eternal inflation scenario doesn’t explain what it is supposed to, and … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7715","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-multiverse-mania"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7715","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7715"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7715\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7717,"href":"https:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7715\/revisions\/7717"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7715"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7715"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7715"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}