{"id":7645,"date":"2015-04-08T18:56:40","date_gmt":"2015-04-08T22:56:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/?p=7645"},"modified":"2015-04-08T19:40:11","modified_gmt":"2015-04-08T23:40:11","slug":"news-of-the-multiverse-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/?p=7645","title":{"rendered":"News of the Multiverse"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Just about ten years ago, my <a href=\"http:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/?p=176\">April 1 posting<\/a> here was a fantasy about the Stanford ITP getting major funding from the Templeton Foundation, using it to fund a program on the multiverse, and renaming themselves the Stanford Templeton Research Institute for Nature, God and Science.  The last part hasn&#8217;t yet come true yet, but I just noticed the announcement last year of a $878K  <a href=\"http:\/\/www.templeton.org\/what-we-fund\/grants\/inflation-the-multiverse-and-holography\">Inflation, the Multiverse, and Holography<\/a> grant from Templeton to the SITP, the third part of &#8220;A three component Templeton Initiative at the Stanford Institute for Theoretical Physics.&#8221; <\/p>\n<p>To get some idea of the scale of this funding, note that the entire NSF budget for theoretical HEP is about $12 million (the DOE spends about $50-60 million, but that supports groups at the labs, as well as computational hardware, and is decreasing).  The Templeton Foundation has an endowment of over $3 billion (growing rapidly), and pays out over $100 million in grants\/year (also growing rapidly).  I don&#8217;t think my skills as a fantasist are good enough to imagine what this means for ten years from now in the future.<\/p>\n<p>In other multiverse news, the Literary Review of Canada has published a <a href=\"http:\/\/reviewcanada.ca\/magazine\/2015\/04\/an-imperfect-truth\/\">review by David Orrell<\/a> of the recent Unger\/Smolin book, and an <a href=\"http:\/\/reviewcanada.ca\/magazine\/2015\/04\/letters\/\">exchange of letters<\/a> between him and Matthew Kleban. I wrote something about the book <a href=\"http:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/?p=7552\">here<\/a>, and I&#8217;m in many ways not very sympathetic to the point of view of Orrell and Unger\/Smolin, especially about the role of mathematics in physics.  <\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m more on Kleban&#8217;s side about mathematics, but the way he paints multiverse studies as the latest scientific descendant of the mathematics-driven successes of physics of the past is highly problematic.  While this is a point of view favored at Stanford and at Templeton (Kleban has a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nyu.edu\/about\/news-publications\/news\/2012\/10\/04\/kleban-wins-grant-in-new-frontiers-in-astronomy-and-cosmology-competition.html\">$175,000 grant<\/a> from them), I don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s a defensible one.  Kleban&#8217;s arguments are<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<blockquote><p>More to the point is the string landscape, a relatively concrete structure believed to follow from the mathematics of string theory.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Here &#8220;relatively&#8221; is a weasel word (relative to what?), masking the fact that we don&#8217;t at all know what the structure of the string landscape is.<\/li>\n<li>\n<blockquote><p>contrary to Unger and Smolin\u2019s assertions, recent work indicates that current or near-future cosmological observations \u2013 specifically, the detection of positive spatial curvature \u2013 <a href=\"http:\/\/journals.aps.org\/prd\/abstract\/10.1103\/PhysRevD.86.023534\">would falsify<\/a> the landscape (if it is false).<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The situation with the measurement of spatial curvature is that <a href=\"http:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/1502.01589\">recent Planck results<\/a> give |Omega_K| less than 0.005 and the expectation is that it is zero to a much higher accuracy than that, way beyond anything measurable (this is considered one of the main arguments for inflation).  This &#8220;prediction&#8221; isn&#8217;t &#8220;recent&#8221;.    Susskind&#8217;s book on the multiverse ten years ago gave this one bit of sign information as the only prediction of the multiverse (see <a href=\"http:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/?p=307\">here<\/a>).  Shortly thereafter some authors were arguing that you could get positive curvature from the string landscape (see <a href=\"http:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/hep-th\/0610231\">here<\/a>).  I have no idea if they&#8217;re right, but in a <a href=\"http:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/1404.2274\">recent paper<\/a> Kleban himself writes about this:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Positive  curvature  would  probably  not completely  end  discussion about a multiverse but it would be very bad news for the eternal inflation\/CDL bubble nucleation framework.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>and I think Orrell has it right that<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>I would be interested to see if the detection of positive spatial curvature actually falsified the theory \u2013 wouldn\u2019t it just adapt?<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<blockquote><p>Furthermore, the theory can be used to predict the signatures of cosmic bubble collisions:  violent events where two previously separate \u201cuniverses\u201d collide.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>There&#8217;s no evidence at all for such &#8220;signatures&#8221;, and I don&#8217;t think there&#8217;s any plausible argument for why they&#8217;ll appear in new data given that they haven&#8217;t been seen yet (I wrote <a href=\"http:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/?p=6681\">here<\/a> about Kleban&#8217;s Columbia talk about this).  Final data from Planck on polarization are expected soon, but this is so implausible that I&#8217;m not sure Planck will even bother to look.<\/p>\n<p>The problem with this kind of &#8220;testable prediction&#8221; is that it&#8217;s much like my claiming that my theory that the universe is controlled by a giant turtle is testable and predictive, since if you saw a big picture of a turtle in the CMB, that would be strong evidence for my theory. There was a reason Popper went on about falsifiability&#8230;\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<blockquote><p>the standard model of particle physics combined with Einstein\u2019s theory of general relativity \u2013 two of the most well-established theories in physics \u2013 <a href=\"http:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/1126-6708\/2007\/06\/078\/\">predict<\/a> a  large landscape quite similar to that of string theory.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>This one brings back the &#8220;string wars&#8221; era, since I haven&#8217;t heard anyone trying to use it (based on <a href=\"http:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/hep-th\/0703067\">this<\/a>) since 2007.  Whenever people make a &#8220;string theory is just like the standard model&#8221; argument I&#8217;m never sure what to respond.  How do you argue with someone trying to claim that the most successful physical theory ever, by far, is &#8220;quite similar&#8221; to a theory that has had zero success?  It&#8217;s kind of like trying to argue with someone who wants to tell you that black is white, because they&#8217;re both kinds of grey.  Surely they&#8217;re not serious?<\/p>\n<p>In this case, sure, if you put the standard model on a complicated space-time background, added lots of fluxes, etc. to the background, maybe you could turn it into as useless a theory as string theory.  This doesn&#8217;t mean it&#8217;s &#8220;quite similar&#8221;.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Update<\/strong>:  Just noticed another recent essay about the multiverse, Marcelo Gleiser&#8217;s examination of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.npr.org\/blogs\/13.7\/2015\/03\/04\/390672748\/do-fairies-live-in-the-multiverse\">whether Fairies live in the multiverse<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Just about ten years ago, my April 1 posting here was a fantasy about the Stanford ITP getting major funding from the Templeton Foundation, using it to fund a program on the multiverse, and renaming themselves the Stanford Templeton Research &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/?p=7645\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7645","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-multiverse-mania"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7645","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7645"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"https:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7645\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7660,"href":"https:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7645\/revisions\/7660"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7645"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7645"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.math.columbia.edu\/~woit\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7645"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}